perm filename CHAP9[4,KMC]1 blob
sn#017948 filedate 1972-12-27 generic text, type T, neo UTF8
00100 CHAPTER 9
00200
00300 MODEL EVALUATION
00400
00500 In the background of an evaluation procedure for a model lies
00600 the question - `is it a good model?' The ordinary language term `good'
00700 means praiseworthy. But what is a model good at or good for in order to
00800 be praiseworthy? As stated in %00 our primary aim in constructing this
00900 model was to explore and test a theory having explanatory verisimilitude.
01000 How cam we decide whether or not the model provides a `good' explanation
01100 of certain paranoid phenomena?
01200 A model in the form of an algorithm consists of a structure of
01300 mechanisms whose inner workings are sufficient to generate the outward
01400 behavior under consideration. The theory embodied in the model is
01500 revealed by the set of statements which describes how the structure
01600 reacts under various circumstances.
01700 Theories have many functions. They can be summarized as follows
01800 [from Bunge?]
01900 (1)To systematize knowledge.
02000 (2)To explain facts by showing how they are the entailed
02100 consequences of the systematizing hypotheses.
02200 (3)To increase knowledge by deriving new facts.
02300 (4)To enhance the testability of hypotheses.
02400 (5)To guide research by:
02500 (a)posing fruitful problems
02600 (b)suggesting new data to gather
02700 (c)opening new lines of investigation
02800 (6)To map a portion of reality.
02900 It is a tall order for a theory to fulfill all of these
03000 functions. In undeveloped fields we should be happy with even one
03100 of them. Models can be assigned these functions when they are
03200 theoretical, rather than replicative, in type. Our model was intended
03300 primarily to serve functions (2) and (4), testable explanation.